April 4, 2014,

The sharp weakness to start April is something of a warning shot.  It speaks to the risk of bumps in the road to what everyone hopes will be lower rates. Risk averse clients have one thing in mind right now: big momentum on the first day of a new month has a better than 50% chance of bringing additional momentum in that direction.  Risk-tolerant clients technically still haven't seen a compelling break above the 4.32% technical level in the 10yr.  In that sense, this is just a return to a range boundary (even though it could quickly become a breakout depending on the rest of the week's data).

mortgage history chart

February 28, 2024

Interest rates have largely moved sideways, yet they are nudging against long-term highs in a manner that causes some uneasiness. Additionally, they have not broken the upward trend that has been in place for slightly over two weeks. Those who prefer to minimize risk are keen to see this trend reversed before considering any strategies beyond securing their current positions.

On the other hand, individuals willing to embrace risk might not feel a sense of urgency until the 10-year yields surpass the 4.32% threshold.

Regardless, the market is eagerly awaiting meaningful data (early March).

(Chart shows where rates were as we entered the Spring market last.)

Mortgage Rate Chart History

February 13, 2024

Anticipation was high for today's inflation figures, which held significant consequences for the bond market. Unfortunately, the outcomes are far from favorable. Core inflation for the month registered at 0.4%, exceeding the anticipated 0.3%. On an annual basis, inflation remained steady at 3.9%, contrary to the expected decrease to 3.7%. Following the release, bond yields surged, notably breaching the 4.19% threshold for 10-year Treasury yields. This escalates the need for future economic indicators to signal a pivot in inflation trends. Considering the recent robust employment report, it appears we are back to the drawing board in terms of inflation expectations.

February 8, 2024

Richmond Fed President Barkin's recent speeches suggest the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, looking for more data to confirm a downward trend in inflation before considering rate cuts. Despite the expectation of favorable inflation data, the Fed remains wary of inflation risks. This cautious approach aligns with the volatility seen in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate chart, which shows rates rising after a period of decline, reflecting the market's sensitivity to inflation expectations and the Fed's policy signals. Business sentiment is reportedly steadier, with less fear of recession, which could influence market stability moving

See the 3-month history for 30-year conventional fixed rates (APR) below:

Mortgage Rate History

January 26, 2024

Recent speculation about the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2024 has intensified, with a key meeting approaching. Although a January rate cut was considered, market trends suggest it's unlikely. The Fed's stance shifted in late 2023, but necessary economic conditions for a rate cut cycle aren't yet met. Core inflation has reached the 2% target, but it's a short-term measure, and the Fed looks at annual figures. Upcoming economic data, including the jobs report, could influence market volatility. Despite this uncertainty, interest rate improvements since late 2023 have mostly held steady. In real estate, lower rates may be boosting sales, with new home sales showing resilience, indicating increased activity in new construction.

See the 6-month history for 30-year conventional fixed rates (APR) below:

mortgage rate history 240126

January 19, 2024

Mortgage rates in January 2024 have risen to their highest in over a month, contrasting the significant drops seen in late 2023. Despite some media misreports, current rates are not at their lowest since May. This discrepancy is due to the lag in Freddie Mac's survey methodology. However, it's encouraging to note that rates are still over a percent lower than their October peak, suggesting a gentle adjustment in the bond market without strong economic data for further drops.

See the 120-day chart for 30-year conventional fixed rates (APR) below:

Mortgage chart 240119

January 16, 2024

The good news is last week's mortgage bond activity re-affirmed the late 2023 interest rate adjustment. The chart shows that the downward trend was decisive - and we now should hope for more good news as we enter the 2024 election cycle. There is a strong argument for the Fed to lower rates to add energy to what appears to be a sputtering economy.

See the 90-day chart for 30-year conventional fixed rates (APR) below:

Mortgage Rate History 240116

January 9, 2024

The market is looking for direction. Various economic reports are balancing trading for mortgage-backed securities (the instruments that drive mortgage rates). The good news is that even though rates are up a little bit over their lows, they didn't bounce during the first week of trading in 2024.

See the 90-day chart below:

Mortgage Rate Chart 240109

January 2, 2024

There has been a significant shift in 30-year fixed mortgage rates since November 1st, dropping nearly 1.5% from recent highs of near eight percent. Traders believe rates need to fall below 6%, ideally around 5.75% to stimulate the housing market. The late 2023 rate decrease is in anticipation of The Federal Reserve halting rate hikes and potentially cutting during 2024. However, the outlook for the next 30-90 days is uncertain, with factors like economic performance and inflation playing critical roles. Stronger economic indicators or persistent inflation could push rates back up, possibly into the high 6% range. Upcoming December inflation and retail sales reports will be key indicators to watch. While a slower economy might lead to lower mortgage rates, it's a precarious balance. See the 90-day chart below:

Mortgage Rate Chart

Update #1 December 15 2023

Over the last two weeks, interest rates seem to be on a strong downward trend. We are hoping for an election-year bond rally that could potentially drive rates somewhere into the mid 5%'s to 4%'s (APR). Such a shift could lead to more homes on the market, offering better prices and a wider selection for buyers.

See the chart below for a historic trend of 30-year fixed (top tier) conforming mortgage rates starting May of 2022.

Mortgage Chart

Foundry Mortgage GUARANTEE:

If you're like most people, you want expert advice and the best deal. That's our mission! Once you've done your online research, call us to complete your home finance education. And, if we don't have the best deal when you're ready to lock in your interest rate, we'll transfer all paperwork to your lender of choice at your request. No cost or obligation. Call now to validate the "best advice" part of the agreement - you'll know within 5 minutes that we are qualified to be your expert home loan advisors. We are available 7 days 8am - 9pm.

Loan Advisor Mission Statement

"To assist others in making the best home financing decisions, at the lowest cost and interest rates available."

Foundry Logo

Expert Home Loan Advisors

800.640.3050    info@foundrymortgage.com
5975 Shiloh Road
Ste 114-13
Alpharetta, GA 30005
NMLS 1737164 Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee 62261